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Tancredo Aims to be the Colorado Crist

July 28, 2010

Everyone knows that by running a third party ticket, Ross Perot gave us Bill Clinton and Teddy Roosevelt gave us Woodrow Wilson. Compelling as those third party candidates were, all they did was split the conservative vote. The last time a third party managed a win on a national scale was Abraham Lincoln in 1860 when the Republican Party replaced the Whigs.

The left knows this. Lacking a natural majority, the left can only win big when conservatives lose their way.

Think about it: when, in the history of the republic, was there ever a split on the left? Conservatives are of an  independent spirit, fractious and opinionated. The left are true believers in the socialist utopia and they naturally march in lockstep. Their cause only advances when conservatives cannot unite. They talk about bipartisanship, they chide conservatives for not compromising, but they never compromise.

In the Florida senate race, Republican Marco Rubio barely leads newly-minted Independent Charlie Crist 35-33, with Democrat Meek trailing at 20%. (Rasmussen, July 21.) Crist would never have won the primary as a Republican; He’s been widely criticized for putting himself before party.

In Colorado, Tom Tancredo seems to have ambitions to become the Colorado Crist. The situation here is a little more complex and it won’t work the same way. No one can doubt either Tancredo’s or Maes’ conservatism so we will have two conservatives battling it out against the leftist Hickenlooper. That’s a scenario Pat Walk and the Democrats must be absolutely giddy about.

Here’s my assessment. The left is the left and they will march lemming-like off the cliff with the Looper. The Colorado electorate is roughly one-third each Democrat, Independent and Republican. (See Secretary of State stats for June.) But while Democrat is increasingly synonymous with the socialist left, there are three somewhat overlapping groups of voters who will decide: true independents, conservatives, and Tea partiers. Here’s roughly how that looks:

The boxes are roughly proportional to the numbers of voters in the 2.4 million Colorado voter pool. I have no statistics on the numbers of voters who consider themselves both Tea Partiers and conservatives, but recent polls show about one-third identify with the Tea Party movement and most of these are fiscal and constitutional conservatives. Nationwide, about 60% of voters consider themselves conservative, so the dark blue box under-states conservative voters.

How does Tancredo expect to win? The American Constitution Party has 1453 active voters–not much of a base. He is not supported by the Liberty Movement: an open letter signed by 21 of the states’ groups was released yesterday in opposition. Republican activists are not too happy with his last-minute entry into the race either, bypassing the assembly process–especially as he had considered then rejected a run early on. Social conservatives not strongly connected to the GOP and Independents? Independents are not likely to resonate with his far-right agenda and social conservatives can find all they want in Maes.

Maes is highly popular among Tea Party groups. If he can unite GOP stalwarts and the new activists, he can win. He’s neck-in-neck with the Looper already.

Tancredo cannot win. He can only allow Hickenlooper to steal the show.

  1. donincolorado permalink
    July 29, 2010 5:08 am

    Perhaps the Tom T train wreck will sputter and stall before it destroys any chance of defeating Hick and the Radical Progressives who are supporting him. Egos being what they are, the Congressman may pull out to avoid defeat or losing the chance to sit back and say, “I told you so”, if Hick wins anyway.
    If he does stay, you’re right on target and Hick will likely win. It will be Tom T’s hand that turns Colorado over to the complete Washington agenda and also be responsible for the Clear the Bench effort to fail. We’ll clear it, but a Gov Hick will just replace one set of radical activists judges with a new emboldened set. This will secure the Progressive victory over the liberty and freedom loving citizens of Colorado no matter who we send to Denver.
    America is in grave danger from the new laws and destructive regulations set to rain socialist poison upon society within the next 3 years. Our only chance to survive it and fight back is to make Colorado a conservative and Constitutional strong hold. Tom T may well be the instrument of our losing the fight. Those waiting to help enslave us to Washington must find it amusing that it is through the 1453 members of the American Constitution Party that their final victory over the Constitution in Colorado is at hand.

    • July 29, 2010 7:28 am

      Well said, Don. How ironic indeed that, instead of throwing his support to the eventual primary winner, Tancredo will be doing his best to ensure his defeat.

      Regarding Clear the Bench: supposing we do clear it and the Looper is able to restock it. We will have sent a clear message about nominating extremist judges AND we get a chance to vote on new judges after only two years.

  2. July 30, 2010 10:08 am

    “The last time a third party managed a win on a national scale was Abraham Lincoln in 1860 when the Republican Party replaced the Whigs.”

    Whew! Lucky for us, we’ll only get Hickenlooper, and not the likes of Lincoln!

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